But at this stage, he’s at 53 percent approval in both the RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight polling averages, and 54 percent in Gallup. How President Biden is faring on Election Day in 565 days is the great unknown. (Dave Wasserman, The Cook Political Report’s House editor, has a detailed look at the current district-level PVIs here, although obviously the lines will be different in November 2022, once redistricting is in the books.) The other GOP open seats are in states that tilt more Republican: Missouri (R+11) and Ohio (R+6). Republicans have four such seats: incumbents Marco Rubio (Florida, R+3) and Ron Johnson (Wisconsin, R+2), as well as open seats in North Carolina (R+3) and Pennsylvania (R+2). It shows that Democrats are defending five Senate seats in highly competitive states: Mark Kelly in Arizona (R+3) Michael Bennet in Colorado (D+3), Raphael Warnock in Georgia (R+3), Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire (even), and Catherine Cortez-Masto in Nevada (even). If we take its data into account-well, the midterms still look like a bit of a jump ball. It measures how each district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for 2021 was released last week.
In the 26 midterms since the direct election of senators began in 1914, the president’s party has lost seats in 19 (73 percent), remained even in one (Bill Clinton’s second midterm), and gained in six midterms, most recently 2018, when President Trump’s GOP picked up seats. Bush still had an unusually high 63 percent Gallup job-approval rating 14 months after the Sept. The two exceptions were 1934, Franklin Roosevelt’s first midterm election when voters were not yet finished punishing Herbert Hoover’s party, and 2002, when George W. In the House, the party holding the presidency has had a net loss of seats in 37 (95 percent) out of 39 midterm elections.
Republicans are also trying to hold onto five open seats, versus Democrats’ none. Republicans have more exposure in the Senate, as they’re defending 20 seats, against just 14 for Democrats. With the Senate 50-50 and the current House split 218 to 212, with five vacant seats we’re headed toward another compelling cycle. We’ve lived through three riveting election cycles in a row-President Trump’s two races, with House Democrats’ midterm triumph sandwiched in the middle.īut don’t get comfortable now, because we may be in for another one.